Global Macro · Digital Assets · AI-Native Research
Tara Capital applies a liquidity-first macro framework to global markets and digital assets. Institutional investment experience, enhanced by AI-native research infrastructure — analytical rigour and cycle awareness across quarters and years.
Every market narrative is filtered through the liquidity transmission chain — from central bank balance sheets to real yields, financial conditions, and risk appetite. Price follows liquidity; liquidity follows policy.
Markets are connected systems. A shift in Fed policy transmits through real yields to the dollar, to capital flows, to commodity demand, to crypto as the highest-beta liquidity expression. We map the chain, not the headline.
Capital has memory. The frameworks that protect it across cycles — patience, discipline, structural thinking — are the same ones that compound it. We hold both a quarter-on-quarter view of markets and assets, and a cycle view measured in years.
Sovereign rates, central bank policy, fiscal impulse, dollar cycles, and cross-asset transmission. The macro regime determines the risk environment for every asset class — across quarters and across full market cycles.
Bitcoin and Ethereum as high-beta liquidity proxies. On-chain fundamentals, staking yields, and treasury company structures as the institutional access layer. Stablecoins as an emerging layer of financial infrastructure — and a likely primary medium for agent-executed transactions on behalf of clients.
Dollar and real yield sensitivity, carry regime viability, China credit impulse, and commodity-linked sovereign dynamics as the downstream expression of global liquidity.
Bespoke research and analytical frameworks for family offices, allocators, and institutions navigating macro, digital assets, and AI-driven capital markets.
Tara Capital is an independent macro research and advisory platform focused on macroeconomics, digital assets, artificial intelligence and emerging technologies.
We apply a liquidity-first framework to global markets, analysing how monetary policy, financial conditions and capital flows influence investment outcomes. Our work seeks to identify the major forces driving markets and to distinguish enduring trends from short-term noise.
Research spans global macroeconomics, digital assets and technological change, with particular emphasis on the connections between policy decisions, liquidity cycles and market behaviour. We are especially interested in the transmission mechanisms that link economic developments to asset prices across both traditional and digital markets.
Tara Capital is designed for investors, allocators and institutions seeking independent, intellectually rigorous analysis delivered with clarity, curiosity and a long-term perspective.
"More than three decades of experience across global financial markets."
I am an independent macro researcher, investor and former portfolio manager with more than three decades of experience across global financial markets.
My career has been built around understanding how economic cycles, monetary policy, liquidity conditions and capital flows influence investment outcomes. Over more than two decades in investment management, including 17 years as a portfolio manager, I developed and implemented top-down macro frameworks for country allocation, portfolio construction and risk management across emerging and global markets.
I spent 12 years at City of London Investment Management and a further five years at Ashmore Investment Management, where I introduced a macro-driven country allocation framework for global emerging market equity portfolios that contributed to top-quartile performance versus peers. Throughout my career, I have worked across equities, currencies, derivatives and alternative investments, translating macroeconomic developments into positioning and risk decisions.
Today my research focuses on the intersection of macroeconomics, digital assets, technology and politics. I am particularly interested in how liquidity, monetary policy, financial conditions and capital flows are transmitted through markets, influencing both traditional asset classes and digital assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
I am a CFA charterholder, hold an MBA from Manchester Business School and NYU Stern School of Business, a BEng (Hons) in Civil and Structural Engineering from the University of Sheffield, and trained as an officer at the Royal Military Academy Sandhurst. I served for five years as a Regular Army officer in the Royal Regiment of Artillery and continued to serve for a further six years in the Honourable Artillery Company while building my investment management career in the City.
In recent years I have developed a growing interest in blockchain technology, digital asset market structure and artificial intelligence. Through my Food for Thought — Joining the Dots research series, I explore how macroeconomic forces, technological change and policy decisions interact to create opportunities and risks across global markets.
Tara Capital brings these interests together through independent research, analysis and advisory work focused on macroeconomics, digital assets and emerging technologies.
Still curious. Still learning. Still having fun.
A daily macro briefing and five weekly dashboards, generated from live market data, tracking the transmission of liquidity, credit and policy through markets.
A seven-category regime scoring engine — Liquidity, Real Yields, Dollar, Credit Conditions, Growth Indicators, Financial Conditions, and AI CapEx — producing a weekly composite regime classification. This is the analytical backbone from which all research flows.
Daily liquidity pulse, central bank watch, rates and dollar, EM transmission, commodity complex, crypto overnight, prediction markets, and the single macro signal that matters today.
Core signal: Net system liquidity + real 10Y View Latest →
Illustrative extract only. Full reports can be expanded to include additional analysis, charts, indicators and commentary tailored to client requirements.
EMBI spreads, USD vs EM FX index, real 10Y yield, VIX, carry flush signals, EM equity flows, and a composite stress score across five components.
Core signal: EM Stress Composite 0–10 Subscriber Access
Illustrative extract only. Full reports can be expanded to include additional analysis, charts, indicators and commentary tailored to client requirements.
TSF credit impulse, CNH direction, property sector signals, CSI 300 vs FXI divergence, and PBOC policy stance. The leading indicator for global commodity demand.
Core signal: China Proxy Composite + TSF impulse Subscriber Access
Illustrative extract only. Full reports can be expanded to include additional analysis, charts, indicators and commentary tailored to client requirements.
Copper/gold, silver/gold, and oil/gold ratios as regime indicators. Commodity FX confirmation, backwardation/contango read, and the macro signal chain from credit to real assets.
Core signal: Copper/gold + silver/gold ratios Subscriber Access
Illustrative extract only. Full reports can be expanded to include additional analysis, charts, indicators and commentary tailored to client requirements.
mNAV analysis across MSTR, MARA, RIOT, and Metaplanet. Carry trade viability, funding structure, ETF flows, and the double-squeeze regime when real yields and BTC depreciation coincide.
Core signal: mNAV × carry spread Subscriber Access
Illustrative extract only. Full reports can be expanded to include additional analysis, charts, indicators and commentary tailored to client requirements.
Staking APR vs real 10Y yield spread, validator network health, gas regime, LST market structure, and the cycle position of Ethereum's staking economy.
Core signal: Staking APR − Real 10Y yield Subscriber Access
Illustrative extract only. Full reports can be expanded to include additional analysis, charts, indicators and commentary tailored to client requirements.
Tara Capital research is not produced by a team of analysts. It is produced by one experienced investor, working with a suite of AI agents that handle data gathering, monitoring, and structuring — while all analytical judgement and final output remains human.
This is not AI replacing investment expertise. It is AI amplifying it.
Read: Managing a Team of AIs23 Jun 2026
A plain-English guide to the seven-category regime scoring engine that sits behind every Tara Capital research call.
Read More →24 Apr 2026
Part 3 of 9. Most crypto investors are looking for narratives. The market is looking at liquidity. There's a growing disconnect between what people think is driving crypto — and what is actually driving positioning.
Read More →30 Apr 2026
Part 4 of 9. ETH staking yield is often treated as a stable, bond-like return. That misses something important. Yield is endogenous, pro-cyclical, and liquidity-sensitive — and a contraction in participation is not just a yield story. It's a network security story.
Read More →7 May 2026
Part 5 of 9. Druckenmiller doesn't approach markets as a forecasting exercise. He approaches them as a positioning problem. Five principles — and why they translate directly into crypto.
Read More →8 May 2026
Part 6 of 9. Your time horizon shapes almost everything — risk tolerance, positioning, emotional response, interpretation of volatility. Problems begin when people operate on the wrong clock. Crypto amplifies the dynamic like no other market.
Read More →11 May 2026
Part 7 of 9. We tend to think in linear terms. But complex systems don't evolve that way. Markets behave more like diffusion models than sequential predictors — structure emerges from the interaction of liquidity, positioning, and participation.
Read More →14 May 2026
Part 8 of 9. Most people study systems during expansion. The most important information appears during contraction. Liquidity withdrawal exposes fragility that abundant capital had concealed — in banks, hedge funds, sovereign debt, and crypto alike.
Read More →15 May 2026
Part 9 of 9. Every financial system depends on incentives. Crypto is no exception. As block rewards decline and crypto integrates into global finance, the questions that matter are about economics, participation, and system sustainability under stress.
Read More →21 May 2026
Machines do the work. Governments distribute income. Humans pursue leisure. History and human nature suggest the reality will be far more complicated.
Read More →22 May 2026
What it actually looks like to build a persistent AI research workflow — the stack, the data feeds, the delivery pipeline, and why this matters for the future of investment research.
Read More →25 May 2026
Every liquidity cycle produces a dominant narrative. Today it is AI. The technology is real — but markets are pricing it as though it can solve structural problems it was never designed to address.
Read More →1 Jun 2026
The 30-year Treasury is at 5%. Everyone is asking whether yields go higher. That's the wrong question. The right question is: who is actually buying? Three markets. Three buyer structures. One verdict.
Read More →29 May 2026
Pope Leo XIV chose his name deliberately. AI is the second Industrial Revolution — and the questions it raises about human dignity and labour are the same questions, in a new form.
Read More →4 Jun 2026
The central bank wants to cut rates. The oil price won't let it. Supply-shock inflation has no clean monetary fix — and the most important variable isn't on any economic model.
Read More →8 Jun 2026
The model is becoming a commodity. Today it might be Claude. Tomorrow GPT. The real value sits elsewhere — in data, workflows, judgement, and the intellectual framework you develop over years.
Read More →23 Jun 2026
There is a version of this article that opens with wonder. I will not be writing that version. What managing AI agents in daily investment research actually looks like — the workflow, the limits, and what has genuinely changed.
Read More →18 Jun 2026
At one end, serious people argue AI development should stop. At the other, techno-optimists promise abundance. But here is a different question: what has AI actually done — for one person?
Read More →18 Jun 2026
No press conferences. No speeches. No warnings. Just a price that moves, relentlessly, until somebody blinks. 1976. 1994. 2022. The lesson has been taught before.
Read More →1 Jun 2026
Most crypto investors are still not thinking in macro. How global liquidity cycles, monetary policy regimes, and cross-asset correlations actually drive digital asset performance.
Read More →1 Jun 2026
Crypto is not primarily a technology trade. It is a liquidity system. Understanding that dynamic matters more than trying to predict the next narrative.
Read More →1 Jun 2026
Bitcoin Treasury Companies are not just buying BTC. They are financial engineering vehicles built on top of a hard monetary asset — a new layer of market structure.
Read More →1 Jun 2026
For more than a decade, much of the developed world has attempted to solve structural economic problems with liquidity. But liquidity alone cannot create genuine long-term prosperity.
Read More →The name Tara was not chosen for effect. It arrived from two directions at once — an Irish childhood and an Indian riverbank — and when it came time to name the firm, nothing else came close.
My parents were Irish. My mother used to search for Tara Brooches — the 8th-century Celtic penannular brooch that was, and still is, an important part of the Irish dancing costume my sister wore at competitions. The brooch is one of the finest objects of the early medieval world: open-ringed, intricate, a long pin passing through a deliberate gap in the circle. It holds things together without closing them off. That form became the logo.
The other half of the name came from Kanha. During my time at Kipling Camp — in the forest that inspired Rudyard Kipling's The Jungle Book — I had a daily ritual. Every afternoon I rode Tara the elephant to the river to help bathe her alongside her mahout. I was always late. She knew. She would trumpet to call me when I didn't appear on time.
The brooch holds. The elephant remembers. In Sanskrit, Tara means star — a fixed point for navigation. These felt like the right virtues for a capital firm.
Looking back, I didn't create the name Tara Capital. It had been following me throughout my life.
Some brands are created.
Others are found.
Seat of the High Kings of Ireland. One of the most sacred sites in Irish history and mythology — and the source of the name's oldest resonance.
Gold and silver filigree, knotwork, and amber. A penannular form — open circle, long pin — worn on the shoulder at Irish dancing competitions. The logo's circular mark is a direct echo. Held today in the National Museum of Ireland, Dublin.
India's most famous elephant. Purchased in Orissa in 1988 by Mark Shand — adventurer, conservationist, and brother of Queen Camilla — who rode her 800 miles across India and wrote Travels on My Elephant. Tara came to live at Kipling Camp, where I met her, rode her to the river, and was trumpeted at when I was late.
Tara in Sanskrit means star — a fixed point used for navigation across open water. Also a Buddhist goddess of compassion and protection. A name that travels across cultures and arrives with meaning in all of them.
For research enquiries, advisory conversations, or to find out more about Tara Capital, reach out directly. All correspondence is treated in strict confidence.