The TCIF reads seven macroeconomic signal categories every week to determine the prevailing market regime — and where conditions sit in the cycle.
Category Breakdown
Global central bank balance sheet momentum, M2 growth, and cross-border capital flow conditions.
Inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (TIPS), with emphasis on 10y real rate direction and level.
DXY trend and momentum; dollar strength compresses global liquidity and risk appetite.
Investment-grade and high-yield spread levels, credit impulse, and lending standards.
PMI composites, ISM, jobless claims, and leading indicator momentum across major economies.
NFCI / ANFCI composite — a broad gauge of tightness or looseness in the US financial system.
AI infrastructure investment flow, hyperscaler capex trajectory, and semiconductor demand signals.
This Week's Read
The framework is reading 60/100 — the environment is balanced and sustainable, with no dominant stress signal. Financial Conditions is the standout tailwind at 83, with NFCI -0.51 (very loose) signalling abundant aggregate liquidity even as nominal yields remain elevated. Three of seven categories are on improving trajectories, giving the composite a positive short-term bias. The key watch-point is whether Real Yields continue rising at 2.24% real — that remains the variable most likely to break the current equilibrium.
New to the TCIF? Read the full framework explainer — how we define regimes, what each category measures, and how the score maps to allocation positioning.
Read the Framework