The TCIF reads eight macroeconomic signal categories every week to determine the prevailing market regime — and where conditions sit in the cycle.
Category Breakdown
Global central bank balance sheet momentum, M2 growth, and cross-border capital flow conditions.
Inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (TIPS), with emphasis on 10y real rate direction and level.
DXY trend and momentum; dollar strength compresses global liquidity and risk appetite.
Investment-grade and high-yield spread levels, credit impulse, and lending standards.
US payrolls, industrial production, unemployment, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Empire State manufacturing survey, durable goods orders, and copper/gold and equity momentum.
NFCI / ANFCI composite — a broad gauge of tightness or looseness in the US financial system.
AI infrastructure investment flow, hyperscaler capex trajectory, and semiconductor demand signals.
New to the TCIF? Read the full framework explainer — how we define regimes, what each category measures, and how the score maps to allocation positioning.
Read the Framework