The TCIF reads seven macroeconomic signal categories every week to determine the prevailing market regime — and where conditions sit in the cycle.
Category Breakdown
Global central bank balance sheet momentum, M2 growth, and cross-border capital flow conditions.
Inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (TIPS), with emphasis on 10y real rate direction and level.
DXY trend and momentum; dollar strength compresses global liquidity and risk appetite.
Investment-grade and high-yield spread levels, credit impulse, and lending standards.
PMI composites, ISM, jobless claims, and leading indicator momentum across major economies.
NFCI / ANFCI composite — a broad gauge of tightness or looseness in the US financial system.
AI infrastructure investment flow, hyperscaler capex trajectory, and semiconductor demand signals.
This Week's Read
The framework is reading 58/100 — the environment is balanced and sustainable, with no dominant stress signal. Financial Conditions is the standout tailwind at 84, with NFCI -0.52 (very loose). Category trends are mixed, consistent with a regime in equilibrium rather than transition. The key watch-point is whether Real Yields continue rising — that is the variable most likely to break the current equilibrium.
New to the TCIF? Read the full framework explainer — how we define regimes, what each category measures, and how the score maps to allocation positioning.
Read the Framework
