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Tara Capital Investment Framework Macro · Weekly Regime Assessment

TCIF — Weekly Regime Assessment

Clayton Gillece CFA 20 July 2026 Weekly signal
🟡 Mid-Cycle Growth · LOW confidence
57.7
composite score / 100

The TCIF reads eight macroeconomic signal categories every week to determine the prevailing market regime — and where conditions sit in the cycle.

Category Breakdown

Liquidity 58

Global central bank balance sheet momentum, M2 growth, and cross-border capital flow conditions.

Real Yields 55

Inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (TIPS), with emphasis on 10y real rate direction and level.

Dollar 60

DXY trend and momentum; dollar strength compresses global liquidity and risk appetite.

Credit Conditions 60

Investment-grade and high-yield spread levels, credit impulse, and lending standards.

Growth Indicators 50

US payrolls, industrial production, unemployment, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Empire State manufacturing survey, durable goods orders, and copper/gold and equity momentum.

Financial Conditions 84

NFCI / ANFCI composite — a broad gauge of tightness or looseness in the US financial system.

Inflation 46

AI CapEx 42

AI infrastructure investment flow, hyperscaler capex trajectory, and semiconductor demand signals.

This Week's Read

The framework is reading 58/100 — the environment is balanced and sustainable, with no dominant stress signal. Financial Conditions is the standout tailwind at 84, with NFCI -0.54 (very loose). Category trends are mixed, consistent with a regime in equilibrium rather than transition. The key watch-point is whether Real Yields continue rising — that is the variable most likely to break the current equilibrium.

New to the TCIF? Read the full framework explainer — how we define regimes, what each category measures, and how the score maps to allocation positioning.

Read the Framework

YTD Charts

Year-to-date composite regime score and category breakdown — updated every Monday.

TCIF — Composite Regime Score (YTD)

TCIF — Composite Regime Score (YTD)

TCIF — Category Scores (YTD)

TCIF — Category Scores (YTD)

Sector Positioning

Positioning as at 20 July 2026 — derived from the eight-category regime score above.

Sector Allocation — Mid-Cycle Growth

Composite 57.7/100 · TCIF Eight-Category Framework

Sector Signal Rationale
Energy ● OW Energy constructive on inflation regime; commodity FX supportive but growth signal mixed.
Materials ● OW Materials constructive; dollar softening and moderate inflation provide a supportive backdrop.
Industrials ● OW Industrials constructive; mid-cycle capex and credit conditions support earnings.
Consumer Discretionary — Neutral Discretionary neutral — growth holds but inflation is eroding real purchasing power at the margin.
Consumer Staples ● UW Staples underperform in expansion — opportunity cost of defensives high when risk-on is running.
Health Care — Neutral Health Care neutral — neither the growth rotation nor defensive rotation is dominant here.
Financials ● OW Financials constructive on loose liquidity and credit backdrop; yield curve supportive.
Information Technology ● OW Tech constructive; real yields not restrictive and AI CapEx momentum intact.

Key macro themes:

  • Loose financial conditions support broad risk appetite — quality growth preferred
  • AI CapEx momentum fading — Technology valuation headwind; monitor semis for re-entry signal

OW: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials, Information Technology. UW: Consumer Staples.

Implementation Signals

Vehicles in the universe aligned with current regime positioning — as at 20 July 2026. These are macro-driven signals, not buy/sell recommendations. Valuation, sizing, and risk management remain separate judgements.

Ticker Name Type Driver Signal Direction Rationale
HSBA.L HSBC Holdings plc (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Financials OW OW Consider adding Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation EQUITY Sector: Information Technology OW OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
AMD Advanced Micro Devices EQUITY Sector: Information Technology OW OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
MSFT Microsoft Corporation EQUITY Sector: Information Technology OW OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. EQUITY Sector: Information Technology OW OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
AVGO Broadcom Inc. EQUITY Sector: Information Technology OW OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF ETF Sector: Information Technology OW OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
MU Micron Technology Inc. EQUITY Sector: Information Technology OW OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
HON Honeywell International Inc. EQUITY Sector: Industrials OW OW Consider adding Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
RTX RTX Corporation EQUITY Sector: Industrials OW OW Consider adding Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
ITA iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF ETF Sector: Industrials OW OW Consider adding Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation EQUITY Sector: Industrials OW OW Consider adding Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
PG Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
KO The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
ULVR.L Unilever PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
BATS.L British American Tobacco PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
DGE.L Diageo PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
RKT.L Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
IUCS.L iShares S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector UCITS ETF ETF Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
XDWS.L Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Staples UCITS ETF ETF Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.

Signals derived from sector rotation (OW/UW), country engine, and theme alignment. Access category A/B vehicles only shown. “Consider adding” = macro backdrop supportive. “Consider reducing” = macro backdrop deteriorating.

The TCIF is a macro analytical framework, not investment advice. Signals indicate regime alignment only. All investment decisions — including whether to act on any signal shown here — require independent judgement on valuation, portfolio construction, and risk. Past regime signals are not indicative of future performance.

Clayton Gillece

Founder, Tara Capital

Still curious. Still learning. Still having fun.

All TCIF Reports