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Tara Capital Investment Framework Macro · Weekly Regime Assessment

TCIF — Weekly Regime Assessment

Clayton Gillece CFA 17 August 2026 Weekly signal
🟡 Mid-Cycle Growth · LOW confidence
57.9
composite score / 100

The TCIF reads eight macroeconomic signal categories every week to determine the prevailing market regime — and where conditions sit in the cycle.

Category Breakdown

Liquidity 52

Global central bank balance sheet momentum, M2 growth, and cross-border capital flow conditions.

Real Yields 58

Inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (TIPS), with emphasis on 10y real rate direction and level.

Dollar 64

DXY trend and momentum; dollar strength compresses global liquidity and risk appetite.

Credit Conditions 59

Investment-grade and high-yield spread levels, credit impulse, and lending standards.

Growth Indicators 55

US payrolls, industrial production, unemployment, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Empire State manufacturing survey, durable goods orders, and copper/gold and equity momentum.

Financial Conditions 84

NFCI / ANFCI composite — a broad gauge of tightness or looseness in the US financial system.

Inflation 52

Consumer price trends, breakeven rates, and real-yield dynamics that shape purchasing power and central bank policy expectations.

AI CapEx 48

AI infrastructure investment flow, hyperscaler capex trajectory, and semiconductor demand signals.

This Week's Read

The framework is reading 58/100 — the environment is balanced and sustainable, with no dominant stress signal. Financial Conditions is the standout tailwind at 84, with NFCI -0.55 (very loose). 4 of 8 categories are on improving trajectories, giving the composite a positive short-term bias. The key watch-point is whether Real Yields continue rising — that is the variable most likely to break the current equilibrium.

New to the TCIF? Read the full framework explainer — how we define regimes, what each category measures, and how the score maps to allocation positioning.

Read the Framework

YTD Charts

Year-to-date composite regime score and category breakdown — updated every Monday.

TCIF — Composite Regime Score (YTD)

TCIF — Composite Regime Score (YTD)

TCIF — Category Scores (YTD)

TCIF — Category Scores (YTD)

Sector Positioning

Positioning as at 17 August 2026 — derived from the eight-category regime score above.

Sector Allocation — Mid-Cycle Growth

Composite 57.9/100 · TCIF Eight-Category Framework

Sector Signal Rationale
Energy — Neutral Energy neutral — inflation moderating, growth signal insufficient to confirm demand-pull commodity bid.
Materials — Neutral Materials neutral — mixed inflation and dollar signals; no directional conviction.
Industrials ● OW Industrials constructive; mid-cycle capex and credit conditions support earnings.
Consumer Discretionary ● OW Discretionary constructive on solid growth and liquidity backdrop; inflation not yet a headwind.
Consumer Staples ● UW Staples underperform in expansion — opportunity cost of defensives high when risk-on is running.
Health Care — Neutral Health Care neutral — neither the growth rotation nor defensive rotation is dominant here.
Financials ● OW Financials constructive on loose liquidity and credit backdrop; yield curve supportive.
Information Technology ●● OW Tech leads in goldilocks regime — moderate inflation keeps real yields in check; AI CapEx supports.

Key macro themes:

  • Loose financial conditions support broad risk appetite — quality growth preferred

Strong OW: Information Technology. Also OW: Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials. UW: Consumer Staples.

Implementation Signals

Vehicles in the universe aligned with current regime positioning — as at 17 August 2026. These are macro-driven signals, not buy/sell recommendations. Valuation, sizing, and risk management remain separate judgements.

Ticker Name Type Driver Signal Direction Rationale
BOTZ Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF ETF Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States OW · Country: Japan OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
ROBO ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF ETF Sector: Industrials OW · Country: United States OW · Country: Japan OW OW Consider adding Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
IRBO iShares Robotics and AI Multisector ETF ETF Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States OW · Country: Japan OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
MIELY Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (ADR) ADR Sector: Industrials OW · Country: United States OW · Country: Japan OW OW Consider adding Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
ATT LN Allianz Technology Trust plc CEF Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States OW · Country: Japan OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
PCT LN Polar Capital Technology Trust plc CEF Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States OW · Country: Japan OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. EQUITY Sector: Financials OW · Country: United States OW OW Consider adding Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.
HSBA.L HSBC Holdings plc (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Financials OW · Country: Hong Kong Strong OW OW Consider adding Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
AMD Advanced Micro Devices EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
MSFT Microsoft Corporation EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
TSLA Tesla Inc. EQUITY Sector: Consumer Discretionary OW · Country: United States OW OW Consider adding Solid growth and liquidity backdrop; inflation not yet a meaningful headwind.
FMX Fomento Económico Mexicano (Femsa) ADR ADR Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
ABEV Ambev S.A. (ADR) ADR Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c. (ADR) ADR Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
ULVR.L Unilever PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
BATS.L British American Tobacco PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
DGE.L Diageo PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
RKT.L Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
EWS iShares MSCI Singapore ETF ETF Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW UW Consider reducing Dollar strength and slowing growth compress EM commodity exporter margins.
CAMT Camtek Ltd. EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States OW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW Strong OW Monitor Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
ESLT Elbit Systems Ltd. (ADR) ADR Sector: Industrials OW · Country: United States OW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW OW Monitor Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
SHOP Shopify Inc. (NYSE) EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW Strong OW Monitor Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
ERJ Embraer S.A. (ADR) ADR Sector: Industrials OW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW OW Monitor Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
ITUB Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. (ADR) ADR Sector: Financials OW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW OW Monitor Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.

Signals derived from sector rotation (OW/UW), country engine, and theme alignment. Access category A/B vehicles only shown. “Consider adding” = macro backdrop supportive. “Consider reducing” = macro backdrop deteriorating.

⚠ Principal Risk This Week

The framework is currently reading 58/100 (Mid-Cycle Growth), supported disproportionately by Financial Conditions (84) — a fast-moving, market-derived indicator. The principal risk is that this reading is not yet confirmed by the slower-moving fundamental inputs: Liquidity stands at 52 and Growth at 55, both below the level that would independently justify the current posture. If Financial Conditions deteriorate rapidly — as they did in 2018 and 2022 — the composite would fall materially before the other categories signal the turn. The posture depends on accommodative conditions holding; it does not yet rest on broad fundamental confirmation.

📋 Positions to Review

Country / Region: Japan (OW, score 56)

Original evidence: Dollar headwind; Financial Conditions supportive

What has weakened:

Possible response: retain, monitor closely — score approaching Neutral threshold

Restores conviction:

The TCIF is a macro analytical framework, not investment advice. Signals indicate regime alignment only. All investment decisions — including whether to act on any signal shown here — require independent judgement on valuation, portfolio construction, and risk. Past regime signals are not indicative of future performance.

Clayton Gillece

Founder, Tara Capital

Still curious. Still learning. Still having fun.

All TCIF Reports