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Tara Capital Investment Framework Macro · Weekly Regime Assessment

TCIF — Weekly Regime Assessment

Clayton Gillece CFA 31 August 2026 Weekly signal
🟡 Mid-Cycle Growth · LOW confidence
60.9
composite score / 100

The TCIF reads ten macroeconomic signal categories every week to determine the prevailing market regime — and where conditions sit in the cycle.

Category Breakdown

Liquidity 50

Global central bank balance sheet momentum, M2 growth, and cross-border capital flow conditions.

Real Yields 54

Inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (TIPS), with emphasis on 10y real rate direction and level.

Dollar 65

DXY trend and momentum; dollar strength compresses global liquidity and risk appetite.

Credit Conditions 57

Investment-grade and high-yield spread levels, credit impulse, and lending standards.

Growth Indicators 54

US payrolls, industrial production, unemployment, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Empire State manufacturing survey, durable goods orders, and copper/gold and equity momentum.

Financial Conditions 75

NFCI / ANFCI composite — a broad gauge of tightness or looseness in the US financial system.

Inflation 52

Consumer price trends, breakeven rates, and real-yield dynamics that shape purchasing power and central bank policy expectations.

AI CapEx 78

AI infrastructure investment flow, hyperscaler capex trajectory, and semiconductor demand signals.

Corporate Earnings & Profitability 83

Fiscal Sustainability & QE Viability 46

This Week's Read

The framework is reading 61/100 — the environment is balanced and sustainable, with no dominant stress signal. Corporate Earnings & Profitability is the standout tailwind at 83, with Corp profits +20.3% YoY. The notable tension is between Financial Conditions (75 — aggregate conditions accommodative) and Real Yields (54 — still restrictive), a combination that typically favours carry trades and quality credit over long-duration rate exposure. The key watch-point is whether Real Yields continue rising — that is the variable most likely to break the current equilibrium.

New to the TCIF? Read the full framework explainer — how we define regimes, what each category measures, and how the score maps to allocation positioning.

Read the Framework

YTD Charts

Year-to-date composite regime score and category breakdown — updated every Monday.

TCIF — Composite Regime Score (YTD)

TCIF — Composite Regime Score (YTD)

TCIF — Category Scores (YTD)

TCIF — Category Scores (YTD)

Sector Positioning

Positioning as at 31 August 2026 — derived from the ten-category regime score above.

Sector Allocation — Mid-Cycle Growth

Composite 60.9/100 · TCIF Eight-Category Framework

Sector Signal Rationale
Energy ● OW Energy constructive on inflation regime; commodity FX supportive but growth signal mixed.
Materials ● OW Materials constructive; dollar softening and moderate inflation provide a supportive backdrop.
Industrials ● OW Industrials constructive; mid-cycle capex and credit conditions support earnings.
Consumer Discretionary ● OW Discretionary constructive on solid growth and liquidity backdrop; inflation not yet a headwind.
Consumer Staples ● UW Staples underperform in expansion — opportunity cost of defensives high when risk-on is running.
Health Care Neutral Health Care neutral — neither the growth rotation nor defensive rotation is dominant here.
Financials ● OW Financials constructive on loose liquidity and credit backdrop; yield curve supportive.
Information Technology ●● OW Tech leads in goldilocks regime — moderate inflation keeps real yields in check; AI CapEx supports.

Key macro themes:

  • Loose financial conditions support broad risk appetite — quality growth preferred
  • AI CapEx cycle re-accelerating — Technology and semiconductor supply chain OW

Strong OW: Information Technology. Also OW: Energy, Materials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials. UW: Consumer Staples.

Implementation Signals

Vehicles in the universe aligned with current regime positioning — as at 31 August 2026. These are macro-driven signals, not buy/sell recommendations. Valuation, sizing, and risk management remain separate judgements.

Ticker Name Type Driver Signal Direction Rationale
XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation EQUITY Sector: Energy OW · Country: United States Strong OW OW Consider adding Inflation regime and dollar signal constructive for energy; commodity FX supportive.
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. EQUITY Sector: Financials OW · Country: United States Strong OW OW Consider adding Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.
HSBA.L HSBC Holdings plc (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Financials OW · Country: Hong Kong OW OW Consider adding Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
AMD Advanced Micro Devices EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
MSFT Microsoft Corporation EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
CVX Chevron Corporation EQUITY Sector: Energy OW · Country: United States Strong OW OW Consider adding Inflation regime and dollar signal constructive for energy; commodity FX supportive.
TSLA Tesla Inc. EQUITY Sector: Consumer Discretionary OW · Country: United States Strong OW OW Consider adding Solid growth and liquidity backdrop; inflation not yet a meaningful headwind.
C Citigroup Inc. EQUITY Sector: Financials OW · Country: United States Strong OW OW Consider adding Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.
PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. EQUITY Sector: Financials OW · Country: United States Strong OW OW Consider adding Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.
AVGO Broadcom Inc. EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
FMX Fomento Económico Mexicano (Femsa) ADR ADR Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
ABEV Ambev S.A. (ADR) ADR Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
BTI British American Tobacco p.l.c. (ADR) ADR Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
ULVR.L Unilever PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
BATS.L British American Tobacco PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
DGE.L Diageo PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
RKT.L Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
EWS iShares MSCI Singapore ETF ETF Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW UW Consider reducing Dollar strength and slowing growth compress EM commodity exporter margins.
CAMT Camtek Ltd. EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW Strong OW Monitor Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
ESLT Elbit Systems Ltd. (ADR) ADR Sector: Industrials OW · Country: United States Strong OW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW OW Monitor Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
SHOP Shopify Inc. (NYSE) EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW Strong OW Monitor Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
WDS Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ADR) ADR Sector: Energy OW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW OW Monitor Inflation regime and dollar signal constructive for energy; commodity FX supportive.
PBR Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (ADR) ADR Sector: Energy OW · Country: Em Commodity Exporters UW OW Monitor Inflation regime and dollar signal constructive for energy; commodity FX supportive.

Signals derived from sector rotation (OW/UW), country engine, and theme alignment. Access category A/B vehicles only shown. “Consider adding” = macro backdrop supportive. “Consider reducing” = macro backdrop deteriorating.

⚠ Principal Risk This Week

The framework is currently reading 61/100 (Mid-Cycle Growth), supported disproportionately by Financial Conditions (75) — a fast-moving, market-derived indicator. The principal risk is that this reading is not yet confirmed by the slower-moving fundamental inputs: Liquidity stands at 50 and Growth at 54, both below the level that would independently justify the current posture. If Financial Conditions deteriorate rapidly — as they did in 2018 and 2022 — the composite would fall materially before the other categories signal the turn. The posture depends on accommodative conditions holding; it does not yet rest on broad fundamental confirmation.

No new positions have been identified for reduction this week.

The TCIF is a macro analytical framework, not investment advice. Signals indicate regime alignment only. All investment decisions — including whether to act on any signal shown here — require independent judgement on valuation, portfolio construction, and risk. Past regime signals are not indicative of future performance.

Clayton Gillece

Founder, Tara Capital

Still curious. Still learning. Still having fun.

All TCIF Reports