`
Tara Capital Investment Framework Macro · Weekly Regime Assessment

TCIF — Weekly Regime Assessment

Clayton Gillece CFA 1 October 2026 Weekly signal
🟡 Mid-Cycle Growth · LOW confidence
58.9
composite score / 100

The TCIF reads ten macroeconomic signal categories every week to determine the prevailing market regime — and where conditions sit in the cycle.

Category Breakdown

Liquidity 49

Global central bank balance sheet momentum, M2 growth, and cross-border capital flow conditions.

Real Yields 53

Inflation-adjusted Treasury yields (TIPS), with emphasis on 10y real rate direction and level.

Dollar 56

DXY trend and momentum; dollar strength compresses global liquidity and risk appetite.

Credit Conditions 56

Investment-grade and high-yield spread levels, credit impulse, and lending standards.

Growth Indicators 58

US payrolls, industrial production, unemployment, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Empire State manufacturing survey, durable goods orders, copper/gold and equity momentum, and OECD Composite Leading Indicators across seven major economies.

Financial Conditions 76

NFCI / ANFCI composite — a broad gauge of tightness or looseness in the US financial system.

Inflation 52

Consumer price trends, breakeven rates, and real-yield dynamics that shape purchasing power and central bank policy expectations.

AI CapEx 80

AI infrastructure investment flow, hyperscaler capex trajectory, and semiconductor demand signals.

Corporate Earnings & Profitability 83

Fiscal Sustainability & QE Viability 46

This Week's Read

The framework is reading 59/100 — the environment is balanced and sustainable, with no dominant stress signal. Corporate Earnings & Profitability is the standout tailwind at 83, with Corp profits +18.2% YoY. The notable tension is between Financial Conditions (76 — aggregate conditions accommodative) and Real Yields (53 — still restrictive), a combination that typically favours carry trades and quality credit over long-duration rate exposure. The key watch-point is whether Real Yields continue rising — that is the variable most likely to break the current equilibrium.

New to the TCIF? Read the full framework explainer — how we define regimes, what each category measures, and how the score maps to allocation positioning.

Read the Framework

YTD Charts

Year-to-date composite regime score and category breakdown — updated every Monday.

TCIF — Composite Regime Score (YTD)

TCIF — Composite Regime Score (YTD)

TCIF — Category Scores (YTD)

TCIF — Category Scores (YTD)

Sector Positioning

Positioning as at 1 October 2026 — derived from the ten-category regime score above.

Sector Allocation — Mid-Cycle Growth

Composite 58.9/100 · TCIF Eight-Category Framework

Sector Signal Rationale
Energy Neutral Energy neutral — inflation moderating, growth signal insufficient to confirm demand-pull commodity bid.
Materials Neutral Materials neutral — mixed inflation and dollar signals; no directional conviction.
Industrials ● OW Industrials constructive; mid-cycle capex and credit conditions support earnings.
Consumer Discretionary ● OW Discretionary constructive on solid growth and liquidity backdrop; inflation not yet a headwind.
Consumer Staples ● UW Staples underperform in expansion — opportunity cost of defensives high when risk-on is running.
Health Care Neutral Health Care neutral — neither the growth rotation nor defensive rotation is dominant here.
Financials ● OW Financials constructive on loose liquidity and credit backdrop; yield curve supportive.
Information Technology ●● OW Tech leads in goldilocks regime — moderate inflation keeps real yields in check; AI CapEx supports.

Key macro themes:

  • Loose financial conditions support broad risk appetite — quality growth preferred
  • AI CapEx cycle re-accelerating — Technology and semiconductor supply chain OW

Strong OW: Information Technology. Also OW: Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, Financials. UW: Consumer Staples.

Implementation Signals

Vehicles in the universe aligned with current regime positioning — as at 1 October 2026. These are macro-driven signals, not buy/sell recommendations. Valuation, sizing, and risk management remain separate judgements.

Ticker Name Type Driver Signal Direction Rationale
BOTZ Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF ETF Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW · Country: Japan OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
ROBO ROBO Global Robotics & Automation Index ETF ETF Sector: Industrials OW · Country: United States Strong OW · Country: Japan OW OW Consider adding Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
IRBO iShares Robotics and AI Multisector ETF ETF Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW · Country: Japan OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
MIELY Mitsubishi Electric Corporation (ADR) ADR Sector: Industrials OW · Country: United States Strong OW · Country: Japan OW OW Consider adding Capex cycle and credit conditions constructive; fiscal infrastructure theme active.
FUTU Futu Holdings Ltd (ADR) EQUITY Sector: Financials OW · Country: United States Strong OW · Country: India Strong OW OW Consider adding Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.
ATT LN Allianz Technology Trust plc CEF Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW · Country: Japan OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
PCT LN Polar Capital Technology Trust plc CEF Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW · Country: Japan OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. EQUITY Sector: Financials OW · Country: United States Strong OW OW Consider adding Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.
HSBA.L HSBC Holdings plc (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Financials OW · Country: Hong Kong OW OW Consider adding Financial conditions accommodative; credit spreads tight and yield curve supportive.
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
AMD Advanced Micro Devices EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
MSFT Microsoft Corporation EQUITY Sector: Information Technology Strong OW · Country: United States Strong OW Strong OW Consider adding Regime supports quality growth; AI capex cycle and financial conditions favour IT.
ULVR.L Unilever PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
BATS.L British American Tobacco PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
DGE.L Diageo PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
RKT.L Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC (LSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
FMX Fomento Económico Mexicano (Femsa) ADR ADR Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
MOWI.OL Mowi ASA EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
ORK.OL Orkla ASA EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
SALM.OL SalMar ASA EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW UW Consider reducing Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
PG Procter & Gamble Co (NYSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: United States Strong OW UW Monitor Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
KO The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE) EQUITY Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: United States Strong OW UW Monitor Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
IUCS.L iShares S&P 500 Consumer Staples Sector UCITS ETF ETF Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: United States Strong OW UW Monitor Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
XDWS.L Xtrackers MSCI World Consumer Staples UCITS ETF ETF Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: United States Strong OW UW Monitor Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.
NSRGY Nestlé S.A. (OTC ADR) ADR Sector: Consumer Staples UW · Country: United States Strong OW UW Monitor Risk-on expansion regime reduces defensive premium for staples.

Signals derived from sector rotation (OW/UW), country engine, and theme alignment. Access category A/B vehicles only shown. “Consider adding” = macro backdrop supportive. “Consider reducing” = macro backdrop deteriorating.

⚠ Principal Risk This Week

The framework is currently reading 59/100 (Mid-Cycle Growth), supported disproportionately by Financial Conditions (76) — a fast-moving, market-derived indicator. The principal risk is that this reading is not yet confirmed by the slower-moving fundamental inputs: Liquidity stands at 49 and Growth at 58, both below the level that would independently justify the current posture. If Financial Conditions deteriorate rapidly — as they did in 2018 and 2022 — the composite would fall materially before the other categories signal the turn. The posture depends on accommodative conditions holding; it does not yet rest on broad fundamental confirmation.

📋 Positions to Review

Country / Region: Japan (OW, score 56)

Original evidence: Financial Conditions supportive

What has weakened:

Possible response: retain, monitor closely — score approaching Neutral threshold

Restores conviction:

The TCIF is a macro analytical framework, not investment advice. Signals indicate regime alignment only. All investment decisions — including whether to act on any signal shown here — require independent judgement on valuation, portfolio construction, and risk. Past regime signals are not indicative of future performance.

Clayton Gillece

Founder, Tara Capital

Still curious. Still learning. Still having fun.

All TCIF Reports